Texas Instruments Q3: what analog demand says now

Texas Instruments opens semi earnings season today. If there’s real demand outside AI glamour projects, it shows up here first—in power stages, converters, isolation and sensors that ship by the billion. If the print is soft, that’s your signal that “everyday electronics” is still digesting inventory while accelerators hog headlines.

What the Street expects (and what really matters)

Consensus sits near $4.65B revenue and $1.49 EPS for Q3, with Q4 implied around $4.51B.¹ TI’s own note pegs the call for Tue, Oct 21 (3:30pm CT).² Everyone will argue the headline EPS; what matters is order quality and utilization.

China and auto concentration: China is roughly a fifth of sales; auto remains outsized.¹ If EV-centric power and isolation are driving orders, that’s secular. If it’s infotainment and ADAS garnish, discount it.
300 mm advantage vs idle capacity: The 300 mm analog cost edge only shows up if the lines are busy. We want an explicit utilization comment—not marketing fog.
True AI adjacency: TI won’t mint money in datacenter training; its uplift is the plumbing around servers and edge boxes (power integrity, isolation, thermal). Tight SKUs there would be the cleanest “AI dividend” it gets.

What “good” looks like

Sequentially flat to slightly up Q4 guide, backlog that isn’t just tariff-timing noise, and gross margin discipline with under-utilization in the mix. Distributor turns and aged backlog will tell you more than the headline revenue guide.