CXMT targets $42B Shanghai IPO to power China’s DRAM push

China’s leading DRAM maker CXMT is preparing a Shanghai listing that could value it at up to $42B as early as Q1 2026. The raise would bankroll capacity and an HBM ramp, aiming to shrink a multi-year gap with SK hynix, Samsung, and Micron.

What’s being reported

Valuation & timing: Up to 300B yuan (~$42.1B), with a prospectus possible within weeks; listing could land in early 2026.
Use of proceeds: Reports point to HBM investment and expanded packaging in Shanghai, plus continued capex in the 2023–2024 window.
HBM roadmap: Targets HBM3 mass production in 2026 at an initial ~30k wafers/month—roughly one-fifth of SK hynix’s capacity today.

The strategic bet

HBM is the memory bottleneck for AI training and inference. If CXMT can get even modest HBM volume out the door, it unlocks domestic AI builds and lessens reliance on imports constrained by US export rules. But HBM is a yield monster: TSV quality, stacking, and thermals punish newcomers.

Risks and reality checks

Tech gap: Reports cite a 3–4 year lag to incumbents. Closing that in HBM demands rapid iterations in DRAM design and advanced packaging.
Export controls: Any US tightening on HBM tooling or EDA flows could slow the ramp.
Capital intensity: HBM lines burn cash—packaging especially. Watch how much of the raise goes to TSV/stacking vs front-end wafer starts.