Beijing reportedly drops Google antitrust probe — and narrows its sights on Nvidia

In a calibrated bit of policy signalling, Beijing has reportedly terminated an antitrust probe into Google while turning up pressure on Nvidia, including accusations of anticompetitive behaviour and a reported directive to halt purchases of AI chips covered by U.S. export controls. The optics are deliberate: show flexibility toward one U.S. giant while tightening the screws on a supplier more central to China’s AI trajectory.

Why close the Google file?

Google’s core services are blocked in China, and the company’s commercial exposure in the mainland runs through ads and cloud that serve Chinese firms outside China. Pulling back an antitrust case costs Beijing little domestically but buys a talking point in U.S–China talks — especially as TikTok, tariffs, and export controls crowd the agenda.

Why focus on Nvidia?

Because supply sovereignty trumps rhetoric. Nvidia is the single most important foreign supplier in China’s AI stack. If the U.S. curtails exports and Nvidia ships restricted-spec SKUs, Beijing’s best move is to make those SKUs commercially unwelcome while accelerating domestic replacements. Antitrust claims provide a legal frame for tech policy that’s primarily about industrial strategy.

Opinion: tactical détente, strategic decoupling

Dropping the Google case is a diplomatic olive branch, not a full embrace. The strategic track is still decoupling in the compute stack — software ecosystems, accelerators, packaging, and foundry access. Nvidia’s best defence remains software lock-in (CUDA), but lock-in is fragile under regulatory compulsion. If this continues, the China market for Nvidia becomes installed base maintenance, not growth.

Why close the Google file?

Google’s core services are blocked in China, and the company’s commercial exposure in the mainland runs through ads and cloud that serve Chinese firms outside China. Pulling back an antitrust case costs Beijing little domestically but buys a talking point in U.S.–China talks — especially as TikTok, tariffs, and export controls crowd the agenda.

Why focus on Nvidia?

Because supply sovereignty trumps rhetoric. Nvidia is the single most important foreign supplier in China’s AI stack. If the U.S. curtails exports and Nvidia ships crippled SKUs, Beijing’s best move is to make those SKUs commercially unwelcome while accelerating domestic replacements. Antitrust claims provide legal framing for tech policy that’s primarily about industrial strategy.

Opinion: tactical détente, strategic decoupling

Dropping the Google case is a diplomatic olive sprig, not a branch. The strategic track is still decoupling in the compute stack — software ecosystems, accelerators, packaging, and foundry access. Nvidia’s best defence remains software lock-in (CUDA), but lock-in is fragile under regulatory compulsion. If this continues, the China market for Nvidia becomes installed-base maintenance, not growth.